As the 2025 FedEx Cup Playoffs begin, golf fans turn their attention to the FedEx St. Jude Championship, hosted once again at TPC Southwind in Memphis.
Fresh off his first PGA Tour victory at the Wyndham Championship, Cameron Young joins a competitive field of the top 70 players, though Rory McIlroy has opted to skip this week’s action.
At the top of the odds board is World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler at +280, followed by top contenders like Xander Schauffele (+1600), Justin Thomas (+2200), and Tommy Fleetwood (+2500).
But when it comes to betting and fantasy picks, a trusted computer model that’s nailed 16 major winners has identified several surprising outcomes — including fading some big names and backing longshots.
Let’s break down what the model reveals, along with the updated odds and picks heading into Thursday’s opening round.
Scottie Scheffler Leads the Field — But Don’t Ignore the Value Picks
The model has run 10,000 simulations of the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship, and while Scheffler is still favored to win based on his world ranking and form, he may not provide the best return on investment at such short odds.
Bettors looking for value will find several other names that the model projects to outperform expectations.
Surprise: Collin Morikawa Set to Struggle
One of the biggest surprises from the model is the prediction that two-time major winner Collin Morikawa may not even crack the top 10. Despite strong past performances, Morikawa has been inconsistent in 2025, including missed cuts at both the Scottish Open and Open Championship.
Ranked 129th in strokes gained putting and 121st in scrambling, his short game could be his undoing on TPC Southwind’s tricky layout.
The model suggests looking elsewhere this week — especially for bettors considering Morikawa at +3000.
Sleeper Alert: Sam Burns (+3500)
On the flip side, the model loves Sam Burns as a potential breakout contender this week. The +3500 longshot is having one of the best seasons of his career — including a T7 at the U.S. Open and second place at the RBC Canadian Open.
Burns has also made the cut in 12 consecutive tournaments and ranks 3rd on Tour in strokes gained putting, which could be the difference-maker on a course like TPC Southwind.
Burns also finished T5 at this event last year, so history is on his side.
Other Notable Odds & Picks
While the full list of model picks is exclusive, the simulation is said to have targeted two other golfers with odds of 35-1 or longer who are strong value picks. These could include names like:
Cameron Young (+3500) – riding momentum after his win last week
Corey Conners (+4000) – known for elite ball-striking
Robert MacIntyre (+5000) – a consistent performer with rising form
Wyndham Clark (+5500) – a proven major winner in 2023
Akshay Bhatia (+7500) – young, bold, and showing signs of breaking through
Full Odds: 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship (FanDuel)
Scottie Scheffler +280
Xander Schauffele +1600
Justin Thomas +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2500
Ludvig Aberg +2800
Collin Morikawa +3000
Viktor Hovland +3000
Russell Henley +3000
Matt Fitzpatrick +3300
Patrick Cantlay +3300
Sam Burns +3500
Cameron Young +3500
Ben Griffin +4000
Sepp Straka +4000
Corey Conners +4000
Hideki Matsuyama +4500
Jordan Spieth +5000
Robert MacIntyre +5000
Wyndham Clark +5500
Jason Day +6500
Akshay Bhatia +7500
Rickie Fowler +9000
Brian Harman +9000
Sungjae Im +10000
Tony Finau +15000
As the FedEx Cup Playoffs kick off, sharp bettors and fantasy players should pay close attention to trending form and course fit. While big names like Scheffler, Thomas, and Schauffele remain favorites, this week’s value lies in longshots like Sam Burns and fading underperforming stars like Collin Morikawa.
