The 2025 NBA Finals were expected to be one-sided. The Oklahoma City Thunder, the best team in the league with 68 wins, were overwhelming favorites.
On the other hand, the Indiana Pacers entered the series as massive underdogs at +700 odds—similar to the 2004 Detroit Pistons, the only team to win the Finals with such long odds.
Most experts believed the Thunder would cruise to their first championship. But after three games, it’s clear the underdogs have a real shot. The Pacers are now leading the series 2-1, after a clutch Game 3 win at home, and have shown they can compete with the NBA’s top team.
How We Got Here
Tyrese Haliburton made a statement with a game-winning shot in Game 1, giving Indiana an early lead and stealing home-court advantage. The Thunder responded with a dominant 16-point win in Game 2, and many thought things were back to normal.
But Game 3 told a different story. Indiana took a 116-107 win, and suddenly, the Finals aren’t looking like a mismatch anymore. Now, experts are rethinking their picks after watching three hard-fought games between these two teams.
What Experts Are Saying Now
Here’s how six CBS Sports experts have re-picked the 2025 NBA Finals based on what they’ve seen so far:
Brad Botkin: Thunder in 7
Original Pick: Thunder in 5
Botkin still believes OKC is the better team but admits they aren’t as dominant as expected. He sees the Thunder winning Game 4 and Game 5, losing Game 6 in Indiana, and finally sealing the series in Game 7.
James Herbert: Thunder in 6
Original Pick: Thunder in 6
Herbert refuses to change his original pick. While he now admits he underestimated Indiana, he still sees OKC as the eventual champs.
Jack Maloney: Pacers in 6
Original Pick: Thunder in 6
Maloney is the only expert to switch sides. He believes in Indiana’s momentum and notes that teams who win Game 3 in a tied series win the title 80% of the time. He feels the Pacers’ playoff run isn’t just luck—they’re genuinely tough to beat.
Sam Quinn: Thunder in 6
Original Pick: Thunder in 5
Quinn says he’s picked against Indiana all playoffs but still believes the Thunder’s season-long dominance matters. He compares this to the 2015 Finals, when the better overall team eventually won.
Colin Ward-Henninger: Thunder in 7
Original Pick: Thunder in 7
Colin predicted a long series from the start. Now, he’s nervous about OKC winning on the road in Indiana but trusts their strong home record to carry them through Game 7.
Chris Wimbish: Thunder in 7
Original Pick: Thunder in 6
Wimbish adds one more game to his prediction, expecting the Thunder to edge out Indiana in Game 7 at home. He admits this series is way closer than he and many others expected.
Betting Odds Still Favor Thunder
Despite trailing 2-1, the Thunder are still the favorites to win it all. According to Caesars Sportsbook, Oklahoma City is a -225 favorite, while Indiana remains a +185 underdog heading into Game 4.
The 2025 NBA Finals have already been full of surprises. The Indiana Pacers have gone from long-shot underdogs to serious title contenders. While most experts still lean toward the Thunder, the Pacers’ performance is forcing everyone to rethink what they thought they knew.
With Game 4 approaching, this series is far from over—and it’s shaping up to be one of the most exciting Finals in years.
