The 2025 NBA Finals heads into its decisive Game 7, with the Oklahoma City Thunder hosting the Indiana Pacers. This marks the first Game 7 in the NBA Finals since the 2016 Finals. After the Pacers’ 108-91 victory in Game 6, they forced the series to a winner-take-all game on Sunday.
Oklahoma City is the favorite, with a chance to secure their first-ever NBA Finals win in the Oklahoma City era. The game will tip off at 8 p.m. ET at Paycom Center.
Thunder’s Edge: Strong Home Court Advantage
Oklahoma City enters Game 7 with the NBA’s best regular-season record (68-14) and a dominant home record (35-6). The Thunder have been impressive at home in the playoffs, covering the spread in over 70% of their games.
Key to their success is MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s been stellar at home this postseason, averaging 34.3 points, 4 rebounds, and 7 assists in the Finals.
With the opportunity to win their first NBA Finals in Oklahoma City, the Thunder’s home-court advantage is a major factor. The team has won their last two home games by double digits, and they’ll be eager to perform on their home floor in front of a passionate crowd.
Pacers’ Underdog Resilience
The Pacers have proven themselves resilient throughout the postseason, including in the NBA Finals, where they’ve been the underdog in every game. After winning Game 1 in Oklahoma City, the Pacers are coming off a 17-point victory in Game 6.
Despite injury concerns, Tyrese Haliburton (who scored 14 points in Game 6) will be ready to lead the charge for Indiana in Game 7.
Indiana also boasts the experience of Pascal Siakam, who’s been a steady presence throughout the series. Siakam is averaging 19.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 4 assists per game in the Finals, and his performance will be key if the Pacers are to upset the Thunder on the road.
SportsLine Prediction and Analysis
SportsLine’s model has simulated Thunder vs. Pacers Game 7 10,000 times and offers the following insights:
- Over/Under: The model is leaning towards the Over for the total points, projecting a combined score of 220 points, slightly above the 215.5 line.
- Spread: The model has one side of the spread hitting in nearly 70% of simulations, with Oklahoma City likely to cover the spread.
The combination of Oklahoma City’s stellar home play and MVP-level performances from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes them the favorites, but the Pacers’ resilience and key contributions from Siakam and Haliburton will make this a thrilling Game 7.
